As we approach year-end 2025, this edition recaps a pivotal year for digital assets.
2025 marked a regulatory pivot from enforcement-first to rules-first. The U.S. GENIUS Act emerged as the first prominent stablecoin statute, while other jurisdictions advanced comprehensive frameworks that clarified licensing, custody, and market structure.
Institutional interests in major crypto assets remained resilient—via spot ETFs and corporate treasury adoption—yet crypto-native markets lost momentum amid thinner liquidity. Traditional risk assets generally outperformed as they competed more effectively for capital.
At the same time, a new inflection point is forming in real‑world asset (RWA) tokenization. What began with BlackRock and JPMorgan has broadened to market infrastructure players like Nasdaq and DTCC. The thesis is less about “crypto” per se and more about improving capital efficiency for custodized, traditionally liquid assets—bringing regulated market plumbing on-chain.
Outlook for 2026
- Liquidity backdrop: We expect easier financial conditions in H12026, supported by anticipated policy shifts—including a more accommodative Fed chair nomination timeline—and political incentives ahead of the U.S. midterms. That should keep liquidity ample, at least near-term.
- Impact on crypto: Improved liquidity is likely to benefit cryptobeta, particularly if investors rotate from crowded AI trades. Large-cap assets and ETF-lined exposure should see the earliest flow-through.
- RWAs: Expect acceleration in tokenized Treasuries, funds, andequities as regulatory sandboxes and market-structure integrations mature. This is the clearest institutional bridge between TradFi and on‑chain rails.
Bottom line: 2025 delivered regulatory clarity and institutional rails; 2026 is poised to test how those rails channel broader market liquidity back into digital assets—while RWAs bring Wall Street’s core products on-chain.
TOP Crypto Developments in 2025
1) Global Regulatory Reset Led by US
US strategic reserve and stockpile: An executive move in March to establish a national Bitcoin reserve and a commitment not to sell seized BTC—framing digital assets as strategic reserves.
GENIUS Act: Enacted in July, it set clear rules for dollar-backed stablecoins, supporting USD primacy and digital payments innovation.
SEC posture shift: The SEC dropped major lawsuits, rescinded SAB 121, and greenlit multiple products, easing bank participation in custody.
CFTC market structure: The CFTC permitted registered exchanges to list crypto assets and piloted BTC/ETH/USDC as derivatives collateral.
OCC banking guidance: A December letter affirmed US national banks may buy/sell BTC, ETH, and other crypto for clients.
MiCA goes live: The EU’s MiCA entered full effect, providing passportable authorization across the bloc and intensifying jurisdictional competition.
Hong Kong expands: The SFC allowed licensed VATPs to offer tokenized securities/RWAs to professional investors without a 12‑month track record; the Stablecoins Ordinance (effective Aug 1, 2025) introduced mandatory HKMA licensing for fiat‑referenced issuers.
2) Institutional Adoption Accelerates
Banks and fintechs: 14 of the top 25 US banks advanced client-facing crypto products (trading/custody). PayPal expanded transfers; JPMorgan, Visa, and others piloted stablecoin payments and tokenized funds.
Corporate/sovereign BTC: Corporates, ETFs, and public entities accumulated an estimated ~820k BTC (~4% of supply) over 11 months. ETF and public-company holdings surpassed exchange balances.
RWA tokenization: Tokenized assets reached ~US$396bn, led by treasuries and fundsfrom firms like BlackRock and JPMorgan across Solana, Ethereum, and other chains.
3) Market Volatility & Other Events
BTC cycle: Bitcoin set a new ATH (~US$126k) before a 30–35% pullback amid macro headwinds and long-term holder distribution. An Oct 10 Binance flash crash triggered record liquidations (est. >US$3bn) and reportedly impaired at least one large market maker.
Security: Crypto thefts topped US$3bn, including significant exchange/platform incidents (e.g., Bybit).
What to Watch in 2026
1） RWA Tokenization Inflection (Bringing Wall Street Onchain)
The SEC “crypto innovationexemption” is expected in Jan 2026, providing a 12-24 months sandbox for pilots in tokenized stocks and DeFi under lighter compliance.
DTC no‑action relief: DTC received SEC no‑action relief totokenize select DTC‑custodied assets (e.g., Russell 1000 constituents, major ETFs, U.S. Treasuries). It shared a demo illustrating seamless trading and settlement between traditional custody and on‑chain
tokens, feel free to watch how smooth it is.
Market plumbing alignment: DTCC filed to expandcross‑margining with CME, and Nasdaq filed for stock tokenization with a target of Q3 2026. Together, these steps signal a strong pipeline for RWA tokenization in 2026.
2）DAT - Index Ex/Inclusion?
With MSCI decisions due Jan 15, 2026, DAT constituents face potential rebalancing risk. Nasdaq’s recent decision to keep Strategy in the Nasdaq‑100 is a modestly positive signal.
3) Prediction-market boom
Following accurate 2024 US election calls on Polymarket, prediction markets are scaling
as “intelligence” rails for investors. Polymarket’s valuation reportedly rose ~12x in six months to US$12–15bn; Kalshi (Robinhood supplier) raised ~US$1bn in early Dec at ~US$11bn. With FIFA World Cup and UEFA Champions League milestones in 2026, betting volumes are expected to expand materially on these platforms.
4) More Crypto IPOs
2025 delivered listings from Circle (stablecoin), Bullish (exchange), HashKey (exchange), and Figure (RWA infra). With constructive regulation and easier financial conditions, the IPO window is likely to remain open through at least H1 2026. Candidates to watch are listed below.
Source:Yahoo finance, theblock, coinmarketcap, Reuters
Last but not least, we wish you a peaceful holiday season. May it bring renewal and the New Year bring clarity, resilience, and strong performance across your portfolios!
